Month: July 2026

Wolf Street howls about the family fight at the Fed:

“Fed Holds Rates after ‘Good Family Fight’ with 3 Dissenters, after Enormous Uncertainty in the Markets”

Positions: None.

I agree fully:

The dead period between the ALJ hearing and the final rule is exactly when retail patience breaks. Nothing bearish happened — no adverse ruling, no delay announcement — but price grinds lower anyway because there’s no fresh catalyst to hold attention, and everyone who bought the…

— Jason Vedadi (@vedadi) July 29, 2026

Positions: None.

Authored by Peter Boockvar:

9-3 but otherwise a non-event statement. Kevin, please tell us something of substance.

So, the scorecard said 9-3 no hike with the three people I speculated on to do so did, Lorie Logan, Beth Hammack and I was 50/50 on Neel Kashkari who voted too for one.

Other than that, the statement was identical to the June 17th one. We now await the presser.

The biggest reaction in rates is in the 2 yr yield which is down 5 bps post release. The 10s are unchanged and interestingly the 30 yr yield is up 1 bp.

Bottom line, understandably a lot of angst over what the Fed would do today but the bond market has already tightened policy for them whether one thought they would move today or not. The 2 yr yield is up 22 bps since the day before the June meeting and the 10 yr yield is up by 19 bps.

I’ll say again, it’s really hard to calibrate monetary policy around the huge geopolitical influences on the cost of energy but at least with the Treasury market to set rates themselves and they have. And I’ll also argue, again, it’s doing so in response too to the massive supply of bonds and debts and deficits matter for the first time.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

The Fed’s decision and the market’s response were in line with my expectations:

My Bet on Interest Rates

If I had to make a wager, I would bet the Federal Reserve announces no change in interest rates.

If correct, I would expect a short-covering rally — but I don’t know how durable it may be (if it occurs).

I have a light exposure profile (basically long cannabis), with a small long position in ($SNDK) my only ‘play’ for a rally. 

Positions: Long SNDK (S).

After the Close Wednesday:

Before the Open Thursday: