Month: July 2026

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Treasury Auctions

11:00 a.m.: Treasury announces a 3 and 6 month Bill Auction and a 6 and 52 Week Bill Auction;

11:30 a.m.; Treasury hosts a $110B 4 and a $100B 8 Week Bill Auction

Economic Calendar

Positions: None.

the ignorance to the stock market impact from rates and credit spreads – with both surging to alarming levels – always amazes me. it’s like they think stock prices are magic and the bond market doesn’t exist. at certain levels the bond and credit markets are all that matters -…

— George Cip (@georgejcip) July 30, 2026

Position: None

* After Kevin Warsh’s “wishy washy” comments…

After the new Fed head delivered a mixed message and refused to indicate where the Federal Reserve is headed with regard to interest-rate policy (despite his message that he has no tolerance for high inflation), we saw the biggest steepening of the Treasury yield curve in three decades (driving short-term interest rates lower and the yield on long bonds much higher). 

My fear of “interest rates for longer” — at the foundation of my ursine market view — was underscored. 

A higher risk free rate of return (on Treasury notes) means that the present value of equities is diminished, limiting the upside in stocks (and contrary to the optimistic consensus of Wall Street analysts).

Though they likely won’t…. investment strategists should now be lowering their year end S&P targets.

Position: None