Month: June 2026

From the Comments Section:

Dougie Kass

On the issue of short term trading…

The other point I want to share is that our subs come in all stripes, temperments and objectives. No individual sub is alike as timeframes and risk profiles and appetites are all different.

Contributors, like myself, serve all of our subs.

To state the obvious, it is preferable to call the market right. I have not over the last three years – in which a buy and hold strategy was ideal (in hindsight) and preferable, incurring no tax liability.

That is elementary and tautological.

So being wrong I have tried (and succeeded) in taking a trading approach to engineer profits while being wrong on market direction. 

(I have taken out some of my comments that relate to blocking some subs that I have determined to be rude and that I don’t want to interface with).

We do have many subs that are buy and hold oriented- but based on my interaction, that is likely for only a portion of their portfolios. It seems they nearly all trade outside of their long term investments. 

Among the things they miss is that there are a large amount of subs who have non taxable accounts (IRA, pension plans,etc.) and there are foundations, etc. that are not directed by tax consequences. Many of us manage other people’s money. In my hedge fund, the majority of my investors are not taxable. Those subs who are critical fail to understand this. Additionally there are tax avoidance strategies that can offset short term gains.

As I stated in today’s comments (and all week), there are a number of subs who are griping and growing impatient with cannabis stocks’ underperformance. They are unwilling to hold (and accumulate) weak sectors, yet seem to have long term horizons.

So, everyone is different.

We also have a large portion of our sub base that are trading oriented.  And if we look at the proliferation of leveraged ETFs and ODTE options that have an investment timeframe of less than 24 hours – that is a large and rapidly growing population of general interest by parties in short term trading. 

Finally, as I have stated repeatedly in the past I created a Best Ideas List that has had longs (and shorts) on for many years.  I have said repeatedly that if you dont agree with my negative views onthe market it is a good menu to select longer term investments.

Position: None

From Peter Boockvar:

Pending home sales lift higher

Pending home sales in May saw an encouraging 3.8% m/o/m jump in the key spring selling season, well above the estimate of up .9% and only partly offset by a downward revision of 110 bps to April which saw a .3% rise.

The NAR said, ““A late spring buyer rush—even with mortgage rates not budging—is an indication of pent-up housing demand and consumers’ acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal. The inventory-constrained Northeast region, which has seen faster home price growth but slower home sales for several months, is now showing more buyer contract signings. More supply is needed to help moderate home price growth.”

With the perspective that the pace of existing home sales is still rather soft, see the chart below, it was nice to see a lift even without any help from mortgage rates. We of course now watch for sustainability in the months and quarters to come.

Pending Home Sales index

Positions: None.

– NYSE volume 23% below its one-month average;  
– Nasdaq volume 4% below its one-month average; 
– VIX index: up 1.28% to 16.62

Positions: None.

JavaJoe

7m ago

Have you basically become a day trader now? It’s an honest question. 

Dougie Kass

just now

absolutely not

 when i am wrong as rain on the market, i trade much more actively to hit the cash register – since i dont want to have much long exposure  — i typically do this with the indices… so you see all my index trades

i always trade around longs and shorts – always

you see my day/trade/transactional stuff because, well because i am transparent – holds are holds , trades you see as it is transactional

on the short side (as i have been bearish) i have held more than 15 positions for years

i would much prefer catching a primary trend (down or up) and just hold… so much easier.

Positions: None

From Peter Boockvar:

Retail sales better than expected

Core retail sales in May rose .7% m/o/m after a .5% increase in April and that was 3 tenths above the estimate. Above this line, sales for autos/parts were up by 1.2% m/o/m after dropping by .9% in the month before. They are up 1.8% y/o/y. Building material sales were flat and up by 1.8% y/o/y. As to be expected, gasoline station sales increased by 3.4% m/o/m and 25% y/o/y with price being the main reason.

Sales were up in furniture, clothing, sporting goods, online retail, general merchandise (like department stores) and in the miscellaneous category which includes dollar stores, convenience stores, pet, etc…

On the downside, sales fell for electronics after strength in the prior months and still up 5.9% y/o/y. Sales dropped by one tenth at eating/drinking establishments but after a .9% rise in April and sales here were up 2.4% y/o/y.

Bottom line, a lot coursing thru this data. We have tax refunds on one hand but we also have inflation, mostly at the gas pump on the other and a reminder too that this data is in nominal terms. Wages are still growing but now less than inflation and in part why the savings rate keeps dropping. And we wonder how much of the lift in sales was a consumer response to buy things ahead of expected price increases.

While not apples to apples, headline retail sales were up 6.9% y/o/y (after a 4.8% increase in April) vs the May CPI rise of 4.2% (vs 3.8% in April).

Treasury yields didn’t move much in response with the 2 yr at 4.06%, the 10 yr at 4.43% and the 30 yr at 4.93%.

Positions: None.