11:00 a.m.: Treasury announces a 3 and 6 month bill auction;and a 6-Week Bill Auction;
11:00 a.m.; Treasury note announcement;
11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $70B 4 and $75B 8 Week Bill Auction;
1:00 p.m.: Treasuryhosts a $24B 5-Year TIPS Auction;
2:00 p.m.: Treasury intl cap flows;
4:00 p.m.: Total Net TIC Flows; Net Long-Term TIC Flows (April)
Positions: None.
On Wednesday afternoon (near the lows) I established longs in Microsoft ($MSFT) and Amazon ($AMZN).
I know Amazon reasonably well, not so much Microsoft (though I was prone to buy it based on Bill Ackman’s recent buy (at much higher levels) in his new publicly traded vehicle ($PSUS).
While I have successfully trafficked/traded Amazon and Microsoft on several occasions — my avoidance of the stocks reflected a generally negative view that those two constituents of Mag7 (as with the others) had morphed from a capital light to capital intensive. That metamorphosis has execution risk, increases the likelihood of lower share buybacks and provides less certainty to the profit stream.
As noted in my Diary yesterday and this morning, MAG7 in the aggregate have been awful performers — and have likely been a source of funds to buy memory and semi stocks.
I aggregated sell-side research reports on both companies last night (as I spent some portion of the evening trading ($SPY)/($QQQ) and concluded in the case of MSFT the above challenges are being exacerbated by continued changes in their AI strategy and positioning. Though I am not an expert on Microsoft, from my perch, MSFT’s estimates might be lowered.
I am not sure, however, why Amazon has been so weak, but I decided to bale on that as well. I plan on continuing to do my research on the name to get more informed and current.
From Comments Section last night:
Dougie Kass
11h ago
Sold my AMZN $239.88 adn MSFT $383.06
From earlier:
I bought a ton of MSFT at $378.05 and AMZN at $237.01 in the last 15 minutes of the day.
Position: Long MSFT (M), AMZN (M)
By Doug Kass · Jun 17, 2026, 4:03 PM EDT
Dougie Kass
11h ago
I am not sure I understand the after market ramp = s and p futures +64 and nasdaq futues +401
*taking profits in msft and amazn buys
shorting spy $745.81 and qqq $732.40
Position: None
Closing Volume
– NYSE volume 1% below its one-month average
– NASDAQ volume 13% above its one-month average
– VIX index: up 11.88% to 18.36
Breadth
S&P 500 Sectors
% Movers
Nasdaq 100 Heat Map
Positon: None
Warsh takes fresh approach at FOMC, retail sales show economy is still pumping, and I tell the simple secrets to success.
Here’s my strategy with AI bubble worries now competing with a Fed preparing for potential rate hikes.
With the catapult higher in stock futures I resold stock futures at around 4:10 AM:
* $SPY $746.71
* $QQQ $734.45
Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)
Position: None
Position: None
Position: None
The signing of this memorandum of understanding (which I present without personal comment) has — once again — led to a rally in the futures overnight with S&P futures +65 handles and the Nasdaq +440 handles:
As noted (partially) in the Comments Section I was up throughout the night selling most of my trading longs discussed in my Diary, in addition to selling additional trading long rentals not discussed (too speculative for home gamers).
Stocks are beginning to move in integers and group rotation is conspicuous.
* The absolute and relative strength/overbought in semis and memory equities are growing more and more extreme — continuing this morning premarket.
* Financials are catching an amazing bid.
* But former leaders, Mag 7, are falling flat on their face with fundamental strategic and execution issues plaguing Microsoft ($MSFT) and Meta ($META).
I will try to get out an opener this morning which discusses the rising possibility of a market “event” owing to market structure.
Position: None
