Into this morning’s market ramp I have put back on my speculative short basket.
This is my third foray into this.
As mentioned in my GRNY ($GRNY) and JOET ($JOET) post (previous) this typically is a very very short term and opportunistic trade.
A true rental.
Positions: Short High Beta Tech Package
* Among other reasons, I now want to be short momentum.
I plan to aggressively expand my ($GRNY) short now and to continue to modestly expand my ($JOET) short (despite my fondness for its portfolio manager Joe Terranova).
Let me give you two straightforward reasons for my tactics:
* Both ETFS are grounded in momentum-based investing. Here are the holdings of GRNY (GRNY Holdings – GRNY GRNJ GRNI | Fundstrat Granny Shots ETFs) and JOET (JOET – Portfolio – Virtus Terranova US Quality Momentum ETF | Morningstar). Given my increasingly negative near term market view I want to now be short momentum (i.e., the leading edge of market leadership). Shorting these ETFs satisfies my objective of shorting momentum and conforms to my conservative risk profile and appetite, as, for me, it is too dangerous (save very very short term forays on the short side) to position short in SNDK ($SNDK), MU ($MU), AMD ($AMD), INTC ($INTC), AMAT ($AMAT) et al.
* Both ETFs rebalance with strict multi month disciplines. This disadvantages both ETFs in the event of a violent change in sector leadership. In other words, why be long a momentum based ETF if one hand is tied behind its back?
Any questions about this, please comment in The Comments Section.
Short GRNY M JOET S
-GETY +121% (announces display partnership with OpenAI)
-DFTX +65% (reports positive Phase 3 Emerge topline results for DT120 ODT in MDD; met primary and all key secondary endpoints)
-APGE +47% (confirms to be acquired by AbbVie for $135.11/shr in $10.9B cash deal)
-RGNX +11% (reportedly FDA drops requirement for Regenxbio’s placebo-controlled trial; FDA agrees to reverse rejection of Navsunli gene therapy)
-BWIN +10% (JPMorgan Chase and Co Raised BWIN to Overweight from Neutral, price target: $28)
-FRVO +10% (announces agreement to develop EGS-Twin digital twin platform for Enhanced Geothermal Systems; reports earnings)
-ACA +7.5% (to be acquired by CRH at $150/shr in all-cash deal valued at $8.5B)
-PLBY +7.2% (repurchases 16.6M shares from Fortress at $1.05/share for ~$17.4M)
-MLTX +6.7% (announces Week 52 Results of Sonelokimab from its Phase 3 VELA Program in Hidradenitis Suppurativa)
-VC +5.5% (multiple broker upgrades)
-SMCI +5.3% (hearing upgraded at boutique firm)
-INTC +3.0% (hearing Mizuho raises price target; momentum)
-ACHV +2.9% (receives FDA CRL for cytisinicline NDA; No efficacy or clinical safety deficiencies identified)
-BTQ -10% (files to sell at the market C$150M equity offering)
-MPLT -4.9% (ML-004 IRIS Phase 2 misses primary social communication endpoint in ASD)
-SPCX -3.8% (confirms to launch inaugural senior unsecured notes offering)
-AMBQ -2.9% (files to sell 1.8M shares)
Positions: None.
Positions: None.
8:00 a.m.: Fed Treasury Repo Reference Rate; 11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts an $89 3 and a $77B 6-Month Bill Auction
9:00 a.m.: Fed Board Governor Christopher (Voter) gives welcome remarks before the Fifth Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar hosted by the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC
(Text available. No Q&A. Livestream at https://www.federalreserve.gov/ and https://www.youtube.com/federalreserve )
Positions: None.
Positions: None.
Coke and the IRS, Google flexes its balance sheet, and other headlines are moving stocks this morning.
Let’s check the latest on the Iran deal after a bumpy weekend; also, how the bears, bulls and … Sarge sees the chart of the S&P.
There isn’t much left to drive the market higher as we await second-quarter earnings.
The S&P handled some volatility last week, but a seasonally weak stretch is upon us.
