ETF Action in the A.M.
Positions: None.
Market to Give Back Gains After Iran Setback: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Monday
Plus, Anthropic’s briefing, Next Era & Dominion Energy, SpaceX timing and other headlines moving stocks this morning.
A Possible 2026 Market Top May Have Occurred on Thursday
“Even a happy life cannot be without a measure of darkness, and the word happy would lose its meaning if it were not balanced by sadness.”
“Even a happy life cannot be without a measure of darkness, and the word happy would lose its meaning if it were not balanced by sadness.”
– Carl Jung
There is almost a gravitational pull for equities to move higher over time. Though a rise in stocks is only a coin flip on a daily basis — increasing in value about 55% of the time on all trading days — equities advance by about 70% of the time on a monthly basis and roughly 80% of the time on a rolling one-year period.
This means that calling a market top, like calling a generational market bottom (as I did in the first week of March 2009), is a low probability event that exposes one to criticism.
Nonetheless, I never shy away from public ridicule.
To Everything There Is a Season
I have long written that owning equities creates wealth and being short equities protects capital.
The real purpose of calling a potential market top is to emphasize that the preponderance of negatives, when weighed against elevated share prices, suggests that we could be at a critical juncture for markets in which the downside risks may dwarf the upside rewards.
So, let’s start the week with a Ludacris Forecast (of a possible market top for this year) I made on Thursday:
This modifies my lengthy and ursine market view delivered in Wednesday’s five-part opener, earlier last week:
The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate
The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate (Part 2)
The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate (Part 3)
The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate (Part 4)
The Market Bacchanal Rages On — While I Remain Celibate (Part 5)
Position: None
Stalemate at the Strait, China Stumbles, SpaceX Countdown Begins
Tough talk heats up in war on Iran, China economy shows trouble, SpaceX could go public soon at out-of-this-world valuation.
Early Monday Morning Trading
With S&P futures hitting a low of-60 handles last night, they have rallied to only -5 handles.
I am back shorting:
* $SPY $738.54
* $QQQ $709.46
Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)
A Shift in Market Character Calls for a Shift in Tactics
Bonds are hurting the market and it is time to react to the damage being done.
Tweet of the Day
Position: None
Has Inflation Rung the Bell on a Stock Market Top?
A sharp rise in PPI could be the signal that bears have been looking for. Should investors care?
Howling About Food Inflation
Wolf Street howls about “slugflation.”
There’s Good News and Bad News
Let’s take a look at the positives and negatives within recent market action.