Tag: Ai

The U.S. goods trade deficit (goods are approximately three-quarters of U.S. trade) widened 2.1%, or $2.8 billion, to $134.9 billion in September, the largest since March 2025 and a third straight monthly increase, according to the Census Bureau’s advance report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the gap to narrow to $130.2 billion. August’s deficit was revised to $132.1 billion from $132.6 billion.

Positively, goods exports rose 2.6% to $209.2 billion, but because exports are about 40% smaller than imports, the 2.4% rise in imports to $344.1 billion still widened the gap. That was the third-highest on record for goods exports, up 12.7% from a year earlier, while imports hit a record.

Notably, capital goods imports jumped 7.5%, or $10.9 billion, to a record $157.4 billion, up 77.2% from a year earlier. The category includes the computers, semiconductors and telecommunications equipment going into the AI buildout. The capital goods deficit is now $54.3 billion larger than a year ago, more than the $52.2 billion widening in the overall goods deficit over that period. Goldman noted: “The capital goods category has been a primary contributor to the widening trade deficit this year and has partially offset the impact of rapidly rising AI business investment on GDP growth.”

Consumer goods imports rose 3.1%, the most in four months, but were still 12.0% lower than a year earlier. Industrial supplies imports, which include petroleum and nonmonetary gold, fell 6.0% after jumping 17.1% in August, and auto imports fell 4.0%.

On the export side, foods, feeds and beverages jumped 12.8% to $16.0 billion, consumer goods rose 6.5% and capital goods rose 5.4%. Industrial supplies exports fell 1.6% and autos fell 5.6%.

Before the release, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model had net exports subtracting 2.86 percentage points from third-quarter GDP, after they subtracted 1.10 percentage points in the second quarter.

The full trade balance report, with services and inflation-adjusted figures, is due November 4.