US Equity Markets Bend But Don’t Break
A toxic mix of a potential slowing in AI spending, rising oil prices, and increased Fed rate hike bets see markets fall, but they end well off the lows.
A toxic mix of a potential slowing in AI spending, rising oil prices, and increased Fed rate hike bets see markets fall, but they end well off the lows.
A resurgence in fuel prices and renewed trade tensions drives sentiment below every forecast.
With an already “fragile” setup, equities are starting the week on the wrong foot.
Equities enter the week with a thinning margin for error and confronted by a growing list of risks but not without opportunities.
US equities see broad gains led by megacaps despite markets locking in a September rate hike with at least two more priced over the next year.
Core CPI comes in above expectations raising core PCE estimates with markets now pricing nearly four rate hikes over the next year.
Energy drives a rebound in producer prices with the components feeding through to Core PCE coming in hot.
Another leg higher in oil, on top of a firm inflation backdrop, lifted Treasury yields to multi-year highs, hardening Fed rate-hike bets into next week’s meeting, and driving a fourth straight day of equity losses.
Existing home sales drop to lowest pace in over a year while inventories jump, sending ratio to highest since 2015.